【編者按】2020年即將過去，2021年已然而來，今天，我們將聯(lián)合國經(jīng)社部世界酒店聯(lián)盟主席、國際旅游與酒店聯(lián)合總會執(zhí)行主席、中愛國際文旅集團董事會主席吳軍林先生2020年的封筆之作以官微發(fā)出，以饗讀者。該文將會在2021年第一期《文旅》雜志“卷首•觀察家”欄目刊發(fā)出來，以作為吳軍林主席“新年獻詞”之“代言”。
2020年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長速度表（第一、二季度）
2020.12.29于北京
吳軍林：聯(lián)合國世界酒店聯(lián)盟主席、國際旅游與酒店聯(lián)合總會執(zhí)行會長、中愛國際文旅集團董事會主席
China's economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 and grew by just 3.2% in the second quarter. The global economy has so far almost stopped or experienced negative growth, leaving an indelible ——
As a "young veteran" in the cultural and travel industry, I recall the plague of a thousand years ago in Greater China, the great demise of human life in Europe hundreds of years ago. Thinking about the killing of the cruel war a hundred years ago and the great miracle of mankind that the Red Army fought for decades ago, why do we —— mankind to keep moving forward? Where will the 7 billion human future go?
2021 has come, but 2021 is still an unknown year. The "new crown virus epidemic" is not over, we China recently held in Beijing "Central Economic work Conference" leaders still choose to be strong. In the distant space, in the Pluto, our earth seems to be hard to carry forward. The disaster occurred in 2020, not only the "new crown virus epidemic ", those wars, natural disasters, hunger, death are still" spreading "; those conspiracies and hidden plans are still "planning and action "; those people who boil the flesh and essence of the people into" silver and scepter "many people are still profligate......
2021 is coming, but 2021 is an unknown year. The world's East and West powers have been fighting, through political, economic, technological, military, cultural and other ways to fight and fight. In 2020, a sudden "new crown virus epidemic" will further break the world pattern, this epidemic has made people all over the world see a lot and think a lot, which provides a great opportunity for the rapid rise of China in a hundred years. Obviously, the European and American countries that have developed industrial civilization for two or three hundred years are beginning to decline, and the "Oriental giant" with China as the central country is rapidly becoming the best country in the world, not one of them. In the third quarter of 2020, China's total economic growth was 4.9 percent, and the annual total economic volume will reach or exceed 100 trillion Yuan.
We are very glad that we are in this great age and great country. We have crawled through very hungry farming years, passed a very turbulent political era of the Cultural Revolution, and experienced a wave of extraordinary reform and opening up in the market economy. Now, we are facing a very complicated period of great change, seeing the worst economic recession since World War II. Geo-politically speaking, China has had great pressure and many unfavorable factors from many international combinations for decades, but from the rapid development of high-tech and sky technology, China is a rising star. In some ways, China has overtaken the United States and other countries, attracting global attention.
At present, the "virus epidemic" in the British three islands and the United States is at a peak, the whole of Europe seems to be falling, the "epidemic uncertainty" in Asia and Africa is increasing, India and Africa are particularly worrying, especially in poor and backward countries. The new crown virus epidemic has dealt a devastating blow to their tourism economy, as well as other industrial economies in these countries. There is no doubt that China, an ancient country with 5000 years of civilization, won the 2020" New Crown virus War of Resistance "! In the world, China is the only country with positive economic growth after resuming production and resuming work. China has played a leading role in political control, economic restructuring, epidemic prevention and control, social life arrangements, people's well-being, and so on. However, several large western economies have not actively learned from China about epidemic prevention and control experience and shared the results of anti-epidemic treatment. In November during the epidemic, China and 14 other countries formally signed the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement, which is a rare geopolitical victory for China!
Human beings are very weak and almost vulnerable to natural disasters. So far, the global total of more than 80 million people infected with the new crown virus, the death toll of nearly 1.8 million people, this is very terrible. It is expected that this "new crown virus" will take away the "strong America "500000 lives! At present, the state-of-the-art national medical and prevention system is almost paralyzed, and the whole society of the United States will undergo profound changes in the future.
It is expected that the recovery and development of the global tourism economy in 2021 will remain less optimistic, and China's tourism economy will not be very ideal. without the economic revival of international tourism and important urban tourism, hot destination tourism, china's tourism economy will contribute more than 50% less to GDP whole country in the future (relative to 2018-2019). Macroscopically, China's tourism industry without international circulation will also have a large number of "big input and large output" enterprises and projects "shut down and turn ", China's tourism travel agencies, hotels, scenic spots will face a large area of shuffling and restructuring ,2021 China's tourism industry and its associated number of employees will be greatly reduced.
In November, UN Secretary General Guterres delivered an important video talk at the International Summit and the 13th World Hotel Forum to warn and advise on future world tourism development. At the "Summit and Forum ", UN-DESA's International Federation of Tourism and Hotels presented many new ideas and topics on international tourism, East-West tourism and cultural integration.
On December 13, Hu Heping, Minister of Culture and Tourism of China, at the China Tourism Group Development Forum, seriously pointed out and stressed the importance of future integration of science, technology and tourism, and the importance of further integration of culture and tourism. And advocate "to be a smart tourism model" and so on.
What about the future development of China's tourism industry? Worldwide, if China and other countries can not control and treat the "new crown virus epidemic" in the first quarter of 2021, then the development of tourism economy after April 2021 is more worrying. It would be good if the tourism economy maintained 6-7% growth in 2020 in 2021. Of course, China's current "internal circulation" is the main strategy ," internal and external circulation "is very desirable, but the problem ," internal and external circulation mutual promotion" is easy to bring "new crown virus ", how to do? The second half of 2020 in the rapid resumption of international trade achieved gratifying results, but also brought a lot of "hidden dangers" and "terror "! The key is that the world is a "global village ", the whole earth is safe, China will be more secure. According to the World Monetary Fund, China's economic growth will reach 1.9 percent in 2020, and the World Bank forecast in its December 2020 report that China's economic growth rate will rise to 7.9 percent in 2021. These two forecasts are very authoritative, and we all Chinese people hope to achieve and strive to achieve.
Tourism is the key to boosting domestic demand in China, Tourism is a pillar industry in China's national economy. China currently has 123 million market players, Among them ,8261 private and individual industrial and commercial households, Private enterprises reached 80 per cent and 90 per cent respectively in terms of employment and new employment, According to the think tank, China's middle-income population will reach 800 million by 2035, China has contributed 100% of its domestic consumption for seven consecutive years, Tourism in 2021 under the principle of "internal circulation" to do a good job in domestic tourism business is a very necessary "top priority" work.
Today, we embrace 2021 with great expectation, and we ideal 2021 as a very gratifying year. If 2021 is a healthy, safe and happy year, then we can create more political and military, economic and technological, cultural and tourism miracles, and enjoy more good lives. Only then can we have more poetry and distant "……
On the alternate "nodes" of 2020 and 2021, we can not conquer everything with slogans and vows. At the dawn of the new year, we can only face society more confidently, rationally and scientifically. Human beings can not be too greedy, can not run too fast in the "so-called struggle ", can not overdraw our health and mind to destroy the ecological environment and social system balance and harmony, otherwise, We will usher in an ugly and ferocious 2021!
Finally, we hope that under the wise leadership and effective system governance of the central government, China's tourism economic development will continue to grow steadily, China will play an increasingly important role in the future development of the world, we love our motherland, We love 2021,2021 sunshine will bloom on the horizon after suffering!
2020.12.29 in Beijing
迎接美好2021↓↓↓